Executive Viability Abstract
This feasibility study evaluates the development of a state-of-the-art Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) refinery complex in the United States, leveraging HEFA and Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) technologies to meet the surging demand driven by CORSIA and domestic decarbonization mandates. The project demonstrates strong economic viability backed by federal tax credits (45Z) and significant airline off-take agreements.
Return on Investment
28.5%
Payback Span
4.5 Years
Net Present Value
$450,000,000
IRR Index
22.4%
## Market Analysis
The U.S. aviation sector consumes approximately 25 billion gallons of fuel annually. Current SAF production meets less than 1% of this demand. Regulatory tailwinds, including the SAF Grand Challenge aiming for 3 billion gallons by 2030, create a supply-constrained market. Competitive positioning is secured through proximity to feedstock hubs (Midwest/Gulf Coast) and pipeline infrastructure.
## Technical Feasibility
The facility will utilize a multi-feedstock approach, primarily focusing on Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) from non-food grade oils. The design includes modular expansion capabilities for Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) conversion as cellulosic ethanol supply chains mature. Hydrogen requirements will be met via on-site electrolysis to ensure a low Carbon Intensity (CI) score.
## Financial Projections
Total Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) is estimated at $1.2B. Revenue streams include direct SAF sales, Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), California LCFS credits, and federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credits. Projected EBITDA margins exceed 35% by Year 3 of operation.
## Risk Assessment
Key risks include feedstock price volatility and regulatory shifts. Mitigation involves long-term multi-year feedstock procurement contracts and indexing fuel sale prices to feedstock indices plus a processing spread.