Nigeria Solar Mini-Grid Rural Electrification Project Feasibility Study with Energy Access Demand Analysis

Executive Viability Abstract

This feasibility study evaluates the deployment of a 150kWp Solar Hybrid Mini-Grid system in a rural Nigerian community. The project addresses the critical energy gap in regions where grid extension is not economically viable, focusing on a mix of residential, commercial, and productive-use customers. The analysis confirms high demand, favorable regulatory support via the Nigerian Electrification Project (NEP), and strong financial viability when paired with performance-based grants.

## Market Analysis Nigeria faces a significant energy deficit, with over 80 million people lacking access to the national grid. In rural areas, electrification rates fall below 35%. Market demand is driven by the high cost of alternative energy sources like petrol and diesel generators ($0.60-$0.80/kWh). Our target demographic includes small-scale farmers, milling operations, and retail shops. Demand analysis indicates a daily load profile of 480kWh with a peak demand of 85kW during daylight hours. ## Capex Summary The total Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) is estimated at $345,000. Key components include: - PV Modules & Inverters: $115,000 - Lithium-Ion Storage (300kWh): $130,000 - Distribution Network (3km): $60,000 - Land Prep, Fencing, and Smart Meters: $40,000. ## Revenue Model The project utilizes the 'Anchor-Business-Community' (ABC) model. 1. **Anchor Users:** Telecommunication towers and large mills (30% of revenue). 2. **Commercial Users:** Small shops and workshops (40% of revenue). 3. **Residential Users:** Basic lighting and charging (30% of revenue). Revenue is collected via a Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) platform using smart meters with a tariff of $0.45/kWh. ## Financial Projections Annual operational expenses (OPEX) are projected at $22,000, covering security, maintenance, and software licenses. With an 85% collection rate, the project generates an annual EBITDA of $68,000.