Mexico Renewable Energy Solar-Hydrogen Hybrid Power Plant Development Feasibility Study with Energy Market Outlook

Executive Viability Abstract

This feasibility study evaluates the development of a 100MW Solar PV and 20MW PEM Electrolyzer hybrid facility in Northern Mexico (Sonora/Chihuahua). The project leverages Mexico's high solar irradiance (5.5 - 6.5 kWh/m²/day) to produce cost-competitive green hydrogen for industrial applications and dispatchable renewable power. Despite regulatory volatility, the project demonstrates strong viability due to the high industrial demand for decarbonization in the Bajio and Northern regions.

## Market Analysis Mexico's energy landscape is currently transitioning. While public policy has favored state-owned utility CFE, the private sector's demand for 'Green Certificates' (CELs) and carbon neutrality drives significant interest in Green Hydrogen. The Northern industrial corridor, specifically the steel and glass manufacturing sectors, represents a primary off-take market for hydrogen. The global market outlook suggests hydrogen prices will drop, but Mexico's competitive advantage lies in its low solar generation costs (LCOE <$25/MWh). ## Capex Summary The estimated Total Project Cost is $145M USD. - Solar PV Infrastructure (100MW): $80M - PEM Electrolyzer & Storage (20MW): $35M - Balance of Plant (BoP) & Grid Connection: $15M - Soft Costs, Permitting, and Contingency: $15M ## Revenue Model Revenue is generated via a dual-stream model: 1. Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): Selling 60% of solar output to industrial off-takers at a premium for renewable energy. 2. Green Hydrogen Off-take: Selling H2 at a target price of $4.50/kg to local heavy industries, displacing grey hydrogen. ## ROI Summary The project expects a steady-state return supported by the decreasing cost of electrolyzer technology and high solar capacity factors (up to 28% in Sonora). Long-term profitability is secured through 15-year off-take agreements.