Executive Viability Abstract
This feasibility study evaluates the establishment of a 100MW Green Hydrogen production facility in Northern Mexico (Sonora/Baja California), leveraging world-class solar irradiance and proximity to the US border. The project aims to decarbonize regional heavy industry and capitalize on the growing North American clean energy market.
Return on Investment
18.4%
Payback Span
7.2 years
Net Present Value
$112.5 million
IRR Index
16.2%
## Market Analysis
Mexico possesses a unique geographic advantage with some of the highest solar radiation levels globally (over 5 kWh/m2/day in northern regions). The domestic market is driven by PEMEX refineries and the steel industry (e.g., AHMSA, Ternium) seeking to meet global ESG standards. Internationally, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) creates a cross-border pull for low-carbon fuels.
## Technical Feasibility
The plant will utilize PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) electrolysis for its superior response to intermittent renewable power. Sourcing water from desalination plants is necessary to avoid local water scarcity issues. The facility will include on-site compression and storage for 24/7 delivery capabilities.
## Financial Projections
CAPEX is estimated at $350M, with 60% dedicated to renewable energy generation and 40% to electrolysis and balance of plant. Revenue will be derived from fixed-price Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for hydrogen, oxygen byproduct sales, and Carbon Credit monetization via the Mexican Carbon Market (SCE).
## Risk Assessment
Primary risks include regulatory uncertainty regarding the Energy Transition Law, infrastructure bottlenecks in the SEN (National Electric System), and currency volatility (MXN/USD).