Executive Viability Abstract
This feasibility study evaluates the development of a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production ecosystem in France. Driven by the 'France 2030' investment plan and the European 'ReFuelEU' mandate, the project focuses on establishing a decentralized network of HEFA and PtL (Power-to-Liquid) facilities. The study confirms high viability due to aggressive decarbonization targets and France's low-carbon nuclear energy mix, which provides a competitive edge for e-kerosene production.
Return on Investment
16.8%
Payback Span
8.5 years
Net Present Value
€145,000,000
IRR Index
14.2%
## Executive Summary
France is positioning itself as a European hub for SAF. This report analyzes the transition from fossil-based jet fuel to sustainable alternatives, focusing on logistical integration at major hubs like CDG and Orly.
## Technical Feasibility
The technical framework relies on two primary pathways: 1) HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) for immediate 2025-2030 targets using waste oils. 2) PtL (Power-to-Liquid) utilizing France’s decarbonized electricity grid and captured CO2. Integration into existing TotalEnergies and Neste refinery infrastructures reduces greenfield costs by 30%.
## Market Analysis
The demand is legally mandated. The EU requires 2% SAF blending by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 70% by 2050. Air France-KLM has already committed to exceeding these targets, creating a guaranteed domestic off-take market of 1.5 million tonnes per year by 2030. Competitors include Neste (Finland) and SkyNRG (Netherlands), but France's internal feedstock availability (agricultural residues) provides a logistical advantage.
## Financial Projections
Total capital expenditure for a standard 100k ton/year plant is estimated at €450M. Revenue is driven by a premium pricing model (€2,200 - €2,800/ton) compared to fossil kerosene, supported by carbon credit monetization (ETS).
## Risk Assessment
Primary risks include feedstock price volatility and the scaling speed of green hydrogen production for PtL pathways. Regulatory risk is low due to the 'Fit for 55' legislative package.