Executive Viability Abstract
This feasibility study evaluates the development of a mega-scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production plant in France, strategically positioned to meet the RefuelEU Aviation mandate. The project leverages France's robust aerospace ecosystem, favorable nuclear-backed low-carbon hydrogen availability, and aggressive decarbonization targets. With a proposed capacity of 500,000 tonnes per annum, the plant focuses on HEFA and PtL pathways to capture the rapidly growing European SAF market.
Return on Investment
22.5% over 10 years
Payback Span
7.5 years
Net Present Value
€540 Million
IRR Index
19.8%
## Market Analysis
The European aviation sector is under strict regulatory pressure via the 'Fit for 55' package. France, home to Airbus and Air France-KLM, is a primary market. Current SAF supply meets less than 0.1% of demand. The RefuelEU mandate requires 2% SAF blending by 2025, scaling to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050. The French government's €1.2 billion support plan for low-carbon aircraft further solidifies market stability.
## Technical Feasibility
The project will utilize a dual-pathway approach: 1. HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) for immediate production using waste oils. 2. PtL (Power-to-Liquid) utilizing France's low-carbon nuclear grid for electrolysis-based synthetic kerosene. The integration with existing refinery infrastructure in regions like Fos-sur-Mer or Le Havre reduces greenfield costs by 15%.
## Financial Projections
Estimated CAPEX is €1.5 Billion. Revenue is projected through direct supply agreements (off-take) with major airlines. Price premiums for SAF, currently 3-5x higher than conventional Jet-A1, are supported by the EU ETS (Emissions Trading System) carbon credits and government subsidies. Forecasted EBITDA margin is 25% by Year 4.
## Risk Assessment
Key risks include feedstock price volatility (Used Cooking Oil) and the high energy requirements of the PtL process. Mitigation strategies involve long-term supply contracts and state-backed energy price guarantees.