China Hydrogen Aviation Fuel Industrial Plant Development Feasibility Study with Sustainable Aviation Forecast

Executive Viability Abstract

This feasibility study evaluates the development of a large-scale Green Hydrogen Aviation Fuel (GHAF) plant in China, specifically targeting the Northern renewable energy corridors. With the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) targeting a carbon peak by 2035, the transition from conventional SAF to liquid hydrogen (LH2) for regional and short-haul flights presents a strategic opportunity. The project leverages low-cost wind/solar surplus to drive PEM electrolysis, providing a sustainable alternative to kerosene-based fuels.

## Market Analysis China's aviation sector is one of the world's fastest-growing. The CAAC's 'Green Aviation Development Outline (2023-2035)' mandates a transition toward zero-emission propulsion. While Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the current focus, hydrogen is the long-term solution for regional hubs. Current market demand is driven by government subsidies for 'New Quality Productive Forces' and the pilot programs of COMAC and EHang. ## Technical Feasibility The plant will utilize Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis paired with cryogenic liquefaction units. The primary challenge is the storage and transport of liquid hydrogen (LH2) at -253°C. The proposed site in Inner Mongolia allows for direct coupling with 2GW wind farms, minimizing transmission losses. Storage will include vacuum-insulated spherical tanks capable of holding 5,000 tons of LH2. ## Sustainable Aviation Forecast By 2030, we forecast a 15% penetration of hydrogen-ready ground support equipment (GSE) and a 3% penetration of regional hydrogen-powered flights. By 2045, hydrogen is expected to constitute 20% of the total energy mix for Chinese domestic aviation. This plant serves as the infrastructure backbone for these projections. ## Financial Projections CAPEX is estimated at $1.2 Billion USD, with 40% allocated to electrolyzer stacks and 30% to liquefaction infrastructure. Revenue will be generated through long-term off-take agreements with state-owned airlines (Air China, China Eastern) and refueling service fees at hub airports like Beijing Daxing and Shanghai Pudong.