Executive Viability Abstract
This feasibility study evaluates the development of a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) refinery in Brazil, focusing on the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathways. Brazil is uniquely positioned to dominate the global SAF market due to its established ethanol infrastructure, massive soybean production, and the recent 'Fuel of the Future' legislation which mandates SAF blending starting in 2027. The project demonstrates strong financial viability driven by international carbon credits (CORSIA) and high export demand from the EU and North America.
Return on Investment
22.5%
Payback Span
6.8 years
Net Present Value
$284,500,000
IRR Index
21.2%
## Market Analysis
The global aviation industry aims for net-zero by 2050. Brazil's domestic market is projected to require 1.2 billion liters of SAF annually by 2030 to meet mandatory 3% blend targets. Internationally, the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative ensures a growing floor price for bio-jet exports. Brazil’s competitive advantage lies in feedstock costs, which are 20-30% lower than European counterparts.
## Capex Summary
Initial investment is estimated at $550 million USD for a facility capable of producing 250,000 tonnes per year. This includes:
- $320M for Process Units (Hydrotreaters, Fractionation)
- $110M for Utilities and Offsites
- $70M for Feedstock Storage and Logistics
- $50M Contingency and Engineering (FEED).
## Revenue Model
Revenue is generated through three primary streams:
1. Physical SAF sales at a premium over Jet A1 (approx. 2.5x conventional price).
2. Sale of co-products including Green Naphtha and Bio-LPG.
3. Monetization of Carbon Credits (CBIOs in Brazil and CORSIA credits globally).
## Strategic Outlook
By 2030, the refinery is positioned to be a hub for South American aviation decarbonization. Success depends on securing long-term feedstock agreements with sugarcane and soy crushers to mitigate commodity price volatility.